Superforecasting

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  • Author : Philip Tetlock
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Pages : 352 pages
  • ISBN : 1448166594
  • Rating : 4/5 from 22 reviews
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Download or Read online Superforecasting full in PDF, ePub and kindle. this book written by Philip Tetlock and published by Random House which was released on 24 September 2015 with total page 352 pages. We cannot guarantee that Superforecasting book is available in the library, click Get Book button and read full online book in your kindle, tablet, IPAD, PC or mobile whenever and wherever You Like. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 24 September 2015
GET THIS BOOK Superforecasting

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Crown Publishing Group (NY)
  • Release : 15 September 2015
GET THIS BOOK Superforecasting

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion

SUMMARY Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E Tetlock And Dan Gardner

SUMMARY   Superforecasting  The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E  Tetlock And Dan Gardner
  • Author : Shortcut Edition
  • Publisher : Shortcut Edition
  • Release : 05 June 2021
GET THIS BOOK SUMMARY Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E Tetlock And Dan Gardner

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts. You will also discover that : many experts give forecasts that are too vague and difficult to verify; the field of forecasting is sorely lacking in rigorous evaluations; the best forecasters rely on method and not on innate abilities; any forecast must be

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Instaread
  • Release : 14 December 2015
GET THIS BOOK Superforecasting

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts… PLEASE NOTE: This is

Tetlock and Gardner s Superforecasting Summary

Tetlock and Gardner s Superforecasting Summary
  • Author : Ant Hive Media
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 23 April 2016
GET THIS BOOK Tetlock and Gardner s Superforecasting Summary

This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that

Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 18 February 2016
GET THIS BOOK Summary of Superforecasting

PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and

Guide to Philip E Tetlock s Superforecasting

Guide to Philip E  Tetlock s Superforecasting
  • Author : Eureka
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 24 March 2017
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A GUIDE TO THE ORIGINAL BOOK. Guide to Philip E. Tetlock's & et al Superforecasting Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 14 December 2015
GET THIS BOOK Superforecasting

PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and

Probability Choice and Reason

Probability  Choice  and Reason
  • Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
  • Publisher : CRC Press
  • Release : 16 September 2021
GET THIS BOOK Probability Choice and Reason

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging

The Open Society and Its Complexities

The Open Society and Its Complexities
  • Author : Gerald Gaus
  • Publisher : Oxford University Press
  • Release : 06 August 2021
GET THIS BOOK The Open Society and Its Complexities

A mere two decades ago it was widely assumed that liberal democracy and the Open Society it created had decisively won their century-long struggle against authoritarianism. Although subsequent events have shocked many, F.A. Hayek would not have been surprised that we are in many ways disoriented by the society we have created. As he understood it, the Open Society was a precarious achievement in many ways at odds with our deepest moral sentiments. His path-breaking analyses argued that the

Superforecasting Or Snafu

Superforecasting Or Snafu
  • Author : David L. Raugh
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release : 18 October 2021
GET THIS BOOK Superforecasting Or Snafu

What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce

Bulletproof Problem Solving

Bulletproof Problem Solving
  • Author : Charles Conn,Robert McLean
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 04 March 2019
GET THIS BOOK Bulletproof Problem Solving

Complex problem solving is the core skill for 21st Century Teams Complex problem solving is at the very top of the list of essential skills for career progression in the modern world. But how problem solving is taught in our schools, universities, businesses and organizations comes up short. In Bulletproof Problem Solving: The One Skill That Changes Everything you’ll learn the seven-step systematic approach to creative problem solving developed in top consulting firms that will work in any field