Superforecasting

Produk Detail:
  • Author : Philip Tetlock
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Pages : 352 pages
  • ISBN : 1448166594
  • Rating : 4/5 from 22 reviews
CLICK HERE TO GET THIS BOOK >>>Superforecasting

Download or Read online Superforecasting full in PDF, ePub and kindle. this book written by Philip Tetlock and published by Random House which was released on 24 September 2015 with total page 352 pages. We cannot guarantee that Superforecasting book is available in the library, click Get Book button and read full online book in your kindle, tablet, IPAD, PC or mobile whenever and wherever You Like. The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release : 24 September 2015
GET THIS BOOK Superforecasting

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not

Probability Choice and Reason

Probability  Choice  and Reason
  • Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
  • Publisher : CRC Press
  • Release : 15 September 2021
GET THIS BOOK Probability Choice and Reason

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging

The Open Society and Its Complexities

The Open Society and Its Complexities
  • Author : Gerald Gaus
  • Publisher : Oxford University Press
  • Release : 06 August 2021
GET THIS BOOK The Open Society and Its Complexities

A mere two decades ago it was widely assumed that liberal democracy and the Open Society it created had decisively won their century-long struggle against authoritarianism. Although subsequent events have shocked many, F.A. Hayek would not have been surprised that we are in many ways disoriented by the society we have created. As he understood it, the Open Society was a precarious achievement in many ways at odds with our deepest moral sentiments. His path-breaking analyses argued that the

Bulletproof Problem Solving

Bulletproof Problem Solving
  • Author : Charles Conn,Robert McLean
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 04 March 2019
GET THIS BOOK Bulletproof Problem Solving

Complex problem solving is the core skill for 21st Century Teams Complex problem solving is at the very top of the list of essential skills for career progression in the modern world. But how problem solving is taught in our schools, universities, businesses and organizations comes up short. In Bulletproof Problem Solving: The One Skill That Changes Everything you’ll learn the seven-step systematic approach to creative problem solving developed in top consulting firms that will work in any field

Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners

Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners
  • Author : Dennis Adams,Mary Hamm
  • Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
  • Release : 08 March 2017
GET THIS BOOK Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners

This book will help educators design STEM programs and lessons that foster teamwork and thinking while getting students actively involved in their own learning. There are many practical ideas and lesson plans that will help teachers reach both eager and reluctant learners. The suggestions for STEM curriculum and instruction are research based and standards driven. This book looks at collaborative learning, differentiation, and diversity all the while building instruction in the STEM subjects and good hands-on materials. This is done

Disaster Forensics

Disaster Forensics
  • Author : Anthony J. Masys
  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 03 September 2016
GET THIS BOOK Disaster Forensics

This book aims to uncover the root causes of natural and man-made disasters by going beyond the typical reports and case studies conducted post-disaster. It opens the black box of disasters by presenting ‘forensic analysis approaches’ to disasters, thereby revealing the complex causality that characterizes them and explaining how and why hazards do, or do not, become disasters. This yields ‘systemic’ strategies for managing disasters. Recently the global threat landscape has seen the emergence of high impact, low probability events.

Apocalypse without God

Apocalypse without God
  • Author : Ben Jones
  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • Release : 30 April 2022
GET THIS BOOK Apocalypse without God

Apocalypse, it seems, is everywhere. Preachers with vast followings proclaim the world's end. Apocalyptic fears grip even the non-religious amid climate change, pandemics, and threats of nuclear war. But as these ideas pervade popular discourse, grasping their logic remains elusive. Ben Jones argues that we can gain insight into apocalyptic thought through secular thinkers. He starts with a puzzle: Why would secular thinkers draw on Christian apocalyptic beliefs - often dismissed as bizarre -to interpret politics? The apocalyptic tradition proves

Unlocking Creativity

Unlocking Creativity
  • Author : Michael A. Roberto
  • Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
  • Release : 07 January 2019
GET THIS BOOK Unlocking Creativity

Tear down the obstacles to creative innovation in your organization Unlocking Creativity is an exploration of the creative process and how organizations can clear the way for innovation. In many organizations, creative individuals face stubborn resistance to new ideas. Managers and executives oftentimes reject innovation and unconventional approaches due to misplaced allegiance to the status quo. Questioning established practices or challenging prevailing sentiments is frequently met with stiff resistance. In this climate of stifled creativity and inflexible adherence to conventional

Who Wins in a Digital World

Who Wins in a Digital World
  • Author : MIT Sloan Management Review
  • Publisher : MIT Press
  • Release : 05 March 2019
GET THIS BOOK Who Wins in a Digital World

How organizations can adapt to a constantly changing business environment by being flexible but focused, embracing change, and moving fast. In the new digital world, the unknowns are never-ending. Our ability to embrace the demands of change has become a prerequisite for success. It's not easy. We don't work the way we did last year. Next year, it will all change again. If an organization doesn't embrace the realities of change, it will be under siege from those that do.

The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017

The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017
  • Author : Mircea Pitici
  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 31 October 2017
GET THIS BOOK The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017

The year's finest mathematics writing from around the world This annual anthology brings together the year’s finest mathematics writing from around the world. Featuring promising new voices alongside some of the foremost names in the field, The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017 makes available to a wide audience many articles not easily found anywhere else—and you don’t need to be a mathematician to enjoy them. These writings offer surprising insights into the nature, meaning, and practice of mathematics

Expert Political Judgment

Expert Political Judgment
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock
  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release : 29 August 2017
GET THIS BOOK Expert Political Judgment

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He

Safeguarding the Bioeconomy

Safeguarding the Bioeconomy
  • Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Health and Medicine Division,Policy and Global Affairs,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Forum on Cyber Resilience,Board on Health Sciences Policy,Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy,Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources,Board on Life Sciences,Committee on Safeguarding the Bioeconomy: Finding Strategies for Understanding, Evaluating, and Protecting the Bioeconomy While Sustaining Innovation and Growth
  • Publisher : National Academies Press
  • Release : 01 May 2020
GET THIS BOOK Safeguarding the Bioeconomy

Research and innovation in the life sciences is driving rapid growth in agriculture, biomedical science, information science and computing, energy, and other sectors of the U.S. economy. This economic activity, conceptually referred to as the bioeconomy, presents many opportunities to create jobs, improve the quality of life, and continue to drive economic growth. While the United States has been a leader in advancements in the biological sciences, other countries are also actively investing in and expanding their capabilities in

Noise

Noise
  • Author : Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein
  • Publisher : Hachette UK
  • Release : 18 May 2021
GET THIS BOOK Noise

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make

Leading Intelligence Analysis

Leading Intelligence Analysis
  • Author : Bruce E. Pease
  • Publisher : CQ Press
  • Release : 03 January 2019
GET THIS BOOK Leading Intelligence Analysis

"Bruce Pease has written a much needed book on a long ignored topic: how does one lead analysts? Most analysis is at some level a group activity, whether in government or the private sector. Much has been written about good versus bad analysis and how to train analysts, but Pease, himself a veteran senior CIA analyst and manager, focuses on what the leaders of these analysts need to know and should be thinking about. Leadership matters in analysis as in