Superforecasting

📒Superforecasting ✍ Philip Tetlock

✏Book Title : Superforecasting
✏Author : Philip Tetlock
✏Publisher : Random House
✏Release Date : 2015-09-24
✏Pages : 352
✏ISBN : 9781448166596
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Superforecasting Book Summary : NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

📒Superforecasting ✍ Instaread

✏Book Title : Superforecasting
✏Author : Instaread
✏Publisher : Instaread
✏Release Date : 2015-12-14
✏Pages : 37
✏ISBN : 9781944195489
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Superforecasting Book Summary : Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

📒Summary Of Superforecasting ✍ Instaread Summaries

✏Book Title : Summary of Superforecasting
✏Author : Instaread Summaries
✏Publisher : Idreambooks
✏Release Date : 2016-04-05
✏Pages : 36
✏ISBN : 1945251832
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Summary of Superforecasting Book Summary : Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways

✏Book Title : Superforecasting
✏Author :
✏Publisher :
✏Release Date : 2015
✏Pages :
✏ISBN : OCLC:1051394585
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Superforecasting Book Summary : Abstract Reflecting on Tetlock and Gardner's "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters"

📒Superforecasting ✍ Instaread

✏Book Title : Superforecasting
✏Author : Instaread
✏Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
✏Release Date : 2015-12-14
✏Pages : 36
✏ISBN : 1522758208
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Superforecasting Book Summary : PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

✏Book Title : Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction New York Broadway Books 2015 340 Pages 17 00 Paperback
✏Author :
✏Publisher :
✏Release Date : 2018
✏Pages :
✏ISBN : OCLC:1053744945
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction New York Broadway Books 2015 340 Pages 17 00 Paperback Book Summary :

📒Superforecasting Or Snafu ✍ David L. Raugh

✏Book Title : Superforecasting Or Snafu
✏Author : David L. Raugh
✏Publisher :
✏Release Date : 2019
✏Pages : 137
✏ISBN : OCLC:1107047472
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Superforecasting Or Snafu Book Summary : What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general's assigned areas.

📒Expert Political Judgment ✍ Philip E. Tetlock

✏Book Title : Expert Political Judgment
✏Author : Philip E. Tetlock
✏Publisher : Princeton University Press
✏Release Date : 2017-08-29
✏Pages : 368
✏ISBN : 9780691175973
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Expert Political Judgment Book Summary : Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

📒Future Babble ✍ Dan Gardner

✏Book Title : Future Babble
✏Author : Dan Gardner
✏Publisher : Plume
✏Release Date : 2012-02
✏Pages : 320
✏ISBN : 0452297575
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏Future Babble Book Summary : "Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.

📒The Science Of Fear ✍ Daniel Gardner

✏Book Title : The Science of Fear
✏Author : Daniel Gardner
✏Publisher : Penguin
✏Release Date : 2008-07-17
✏Pages : 368
✏ISBN : 144063808X
✏Available Language : English, Spanish, And French

✏The Science of Fear Book Summary : “An invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly” (The Guardian) from the New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble From terror attacks to collapsing economies, from painkiller epidemics to mass gun violence and poisonous toys from China, our list of fears seems to be exploding. Yet we are the safest and healthiest humans in history. Why are we so worried? The Science of Fear is an introduction to the new brain science of risk, dissecting the fears that misguide and manipulate us every day. Award-winning journalist Dan Gardner demonstrates how irrational fear springs from the ways humans miscalculate risks based on our hunter-gatherer brains. With the exclusive cooperation of risk-science pioneer Paul Slovic and other leading experts, Gardner reveals how our "gut" reactions lead us astray. Understanding our irrational fears frees us from political and corporate manipulation, and makes our choices better. Ultimately, The Science of Fear will make you brave. “Excellent... Analyzes everything from the media’s predilection for irrational scare stories to the cynical use of fear by politicians… [A] cheery corrective to modern paranoia.”—The Economist “An entertaining, often jolting account of why trivial risks terrify us, even as we engage in wildly dangerous activities with hardly a qualm.”—Kirkus (starred review) “Elegantly weaves academic research and everyday experience, exposing the secrets of emotion and reason, and the essential roles they play on our lives. An excellent book.”—Dan Ariely, New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational