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📒Calculated Risks ✍ Gerd Gigerenzer
✏Calculated Risks Book Summary : At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
📒Calculated Risks ✍ Seanan McGuire
✏Calculated Risks Book Summary : The tenth book in the fast-paced InCryptid urban fantasy series returns to the mishaps of the Price family, eccentric cryptozoologists who safeguard the world of magical creatures living in secret among humans. Just when Sarah Zellaby, adopted Price cousin and telepathic ambush predator, thought that things couldn't get worse, she's had to go and prove herself wrong. After being kidnapped and manipulated by her birth family, she has undergone a transformation called an instar, reaching back to her Apocritic origins to metamorphize. While externally the same, she is internally much more powerful, and much more difficult to control. Even by herself. After years of denial, the fact that she will always be a cuckoo has become impossible to deny. Now stranded in another dimension with a handful of allies who seem to have no idea who she is--including her cousin Annie and her maybe-boyfriend Artie, both of whom have forgotten their relationship--and a bunch of cuckoos with good reason to want her dead, Sarah must figure out not only how to contend with her situation, but with the new realities of her future. What is she now? Who is she now? Is that person someone she can live with? And when all is said and done, will she be able to get the people she loves, whether or not they've forgotten her, safely home?
📒Calculated Risks ✍ Joseph V. Rodricks
✏Calculated Risks Book Summary : Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.
📒Calculated Risks ✍ Kenneth A. Rogers
✏Calculated Risks Book Summary : This well-documented study examines one of the increasingly pressing problems for US homeland security: the storage and management of radioactive waste. Despite pressing homeland security and energy security concerns associated with highly radioactive waste, political considerations have prevented policy makers from adopting adequate long-term solutions to the problem. This book explores nuclear waste problems through the broader lens of federal, state and local government and the resultant constraints on policy that emerge within the American political system. Presenting specific case studies to highlight the deficiencies in current policy and planning as well as the possibility of terrorist activity, it is highly suited to courses on security studies and environmental politics.
📒Calculating Risks ✍ James Hamilton
✏Calculating Risks Book Summary : "By matching agency decision data to detailed census information using geographic information systems (GIS) technology, the authors show that most hazardous waste sites do not pose sufficient risk to merit the most stringent cleanup options. Those sites that do pose considerable risk to exposed populations often receive inadequate attention, because government decisions to target cleanups are based more on political factors than on actual risks. The authors propose policy reforms that could significantly reduce cleanup costs without sacrificing the protection of human health."--Jacket.
📒Calculated Risk ✍ Heather Woodhaven
✏Calculated Risk Book Summary : CLANDESTINE COVER-UP Accountant Victoria Hayes never would have thought discovering fraud in her office would put her life at risk. When her house catches fire, destroying the evidence she's collected, it seems the mastermind will do anything to keep Victoria from disclosing what she knows. Unsure what to do, she turns to her charming supervisor for help. But without much evidence, Jeff Tucker is reluctant to believe Victoria…until they both become suspects. Now they must work together to prove their innocence…and stay alive. With an unpredictable—and deadly—criminal after them, each step could be their last.
📒Great Answers To Tough Interview Questions ✍ Martin John Yate
✏Great Answers to Tough Interview Questions Book Summary : This new edition of the best-selling job-hunting book of all time should be your essential companion if you are looking for a job. Dealing with the whole process, from creating an outstanding CV and answering the most dreaded interview questions to negotiating a salary, it is suitable for job-seekers at any stage of their career. Great Answers to Tough Interview Questions is full of examples of tough questions that interviewers like to throw at you, showing you how to answer them in a way that will advance your application and help you to secure your dream job. It also offers advice on exploiting the hidden job market, using headhunters, networking, succeeding in telephone interviews, dressing for success, body language, securing a job offer, following up rejections and dealing with multiple offers.
📒The Calculated Risk ✍ Hamilton Fish Armstrong
✏The Calculated Risk Book Summary : SCOTT (Copy 1): From the John Holmes Library Collection.
📒Risk Bluff In Chess ✍ Vladimir Tukmakov
✏Risk Bluff in Chess Book Summary : You cannot win in chess without taking risks. Winning requires courage and psychology. No matter how deep you calculate, there always comes a point where you have to deal with uncertainties and take a decision. What is carefully calculated risk, and what is bluff? And why were famous players like Lasker and Tal so successful with both? They realized that chess is not a science. Emotions also play a role behind the board. If you can guess what your opponent is feeling and thinking, you are ahead of him. When your main aim is to derail your opponent’s calculation by weaving a web of deception, you engage in the highest form of risk: bluff. Renowned chess coach Vladimir Tukmakov has played against, and worked with, quite a few chess greats. Many of them told him frankly about their thoughts and feelings during crucial games. These stories became the foundation of a collection of more than 100 practical ways that masters and grandmasters have used to push beyond the limits of calculation and take a deliberate risk. It works – even at the highest level! Tukmakov shows how to trick your opponent into believing your bluff. After studying this book, with its many fascinating and often funny examples, you will think twice before wasting an opportunity to do what even the greatest players do: bluff your way to victory!
📒 ✍ مراد محمد على
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