An Algorithmic Crystal Ball Forecasts based on Machine Learning

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  • Author : Jin-Kyu Jung
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Pages : 34 pages
  • ISBN : 1484382498
  • Rating : /5 from reviews
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Download or Read online An Algorithmic Crystal Ball Forecasts based on Machine Learning full in PDF, ePub and kindle. this book written by Jin-Kyu Jung and published by International Monetary Fund which was released on 01 November 2018 with total page 34 pages. We cannot guarantee that An Algorithmic Crystal Ball Forecasts based on Machine Learning book is available in the library, click Get Book button and read full online book in your kindle, tablet, IPAD, PC or mobile whenever and wherever You Like. Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball Forecasts based on Machine Learning

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball  Forecasts based on Machine Learning
  • Author : Jin-Kyu Jung,Manasa Patnam,Anna Ter-Martirosyan
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Release : 01 November 2018
GET THIS BOOK An Algorithmic Crystal Ball Forecasts based on Machine Learning

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We

Deus ex Machina A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning

Deus ex Machina  A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning
  • Author : Marijn A. Bolhuis,Brett Rayner
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Release : 28 February 2020
GET THIS BOOK Deus ex Machina A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast errors than traditional models. By combining multiple machine learning models into ensembles, we lower forecast errors even further. We also identify measures of variable importance to help improve the transparency of machine learning-based forecasts. Applying the framework to

Overfitting in Judgment based Economic Forecasts The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Overfitting in Judgment based Economic Forecasts  The Case of IMF Growth Projections
  • Author : Klaus-Peter Hellwig
  • Publisher : International Monetary Fund
  • Release : 07 December 2018
GET THIS BOOK Overfitting in Judgment based Economic Forecasts The Case of IMF Growth Projections

I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample

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  • Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
  • Release : 08 December 2020
GET THIS BOOK Leading with AI and Analytics Build Your Data Science IQ to Drive Business Value

Lead your organization to become evidence-driven Data. It’s the benchmark that informs corporate projections, decision-making, and analysis. But, why do many organizations that see themselves as data-driven fail to thrive? In Leading with AI and Analytics, two renowned experts from the Kellogg School of Management show business leaders how to transform their organization to become evidence-driven, which leads to real, measurable changes that can help propel their companies to the top of their industries. The availability of unprecedented technology-enabled

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  • Author : Mohammad Shorif Uddin,Jagdish Chand Bansal
  • Publisher : Springer
  • Release : 03 July 2019
GET THIS BOOK Proceedings of International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence

This book gathers outstanding research papers presented at the International Joint Conference on Computational Intelligence (IJCCI 2018), which was held at Daffodil International University on 14–15 December 2018. The topics covered include: collective intelligence, soft computing, optimization, cloud computing, machine learning, intelligent software, robotics, data science, data security, big data analytics, and signal and natural language processing.

Markov Models

Markov Models
  • Author : Robert Tier
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release : 12 March 2017
GET THIS BOOK Markov Models

Discover How to Master Unsupervised Machine Learning and Crack Some of the Greatest Data Enigmas With Markov Models! Would you like to unlock the mysteries of Data Science? Are you yearning to understand how to make educated predictions on the weather, horse races, your unborn baby's facial features, or your boss's next black mood? Would you like a guide to explain these and many other "phenomenons" in clear, easy-to-understand language? If the answer is 'yes' then you'll want to Download

Wiley Encyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Volume 7

Wiley Encyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics Engineering  Volume 7
  • Author : John G. Webster
  • Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
  • Release : 20 April 1999
GET THIS BOOK Wiley Encyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Volume 7

Electrical and electronics engineering entails the design, development and implementation of electrical and electronic power systems. This may be as simple as designing a light bulb or as complex as the development of robotics for automating manufacturing. This Encyclopedia covers both the theory of electrical and electronics engineering as well as practical applications for industry. The annual update volume describes the latest developments in the field.

2020 Giveaway Marketing Prediction and Social Trends Edition 3

2020 Giveaway Marketing Prediction and Social Trends  Edition   3
  • Author : Laura Maya
  • Publisher : Estalontech
  • Release : 25 May 2020
GET THIS BOOK 2020 Giveaway Marketing Prediction and Social Trends Edition 3

Almost every marketer wishes they had a crystal ball so they could peer into the future and see what's hot in the coming year. Unfortunately, most of us are not clairvoyant, but we can usually look at certain current trends and predict which will have staying power. We can also look at emerging technology and how it can be used to further our marketing mission. In this Free report, we will be looking at what happened in 2019 and how it

Genetic Algorithms in Optimisation Simulation and Modelling

Genetic Algorithms in Optimisation  Simulation and Modelling
  • Author : Joachim Stender,Eva Hillebrand,Jason Kingdon
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release : 20 April 1994
GET THIS BOOK Genetic Algorithms in Optimisation Simulation and Modelling

This monograph explores the implementation and application of genetic algorithms to the artificial intelligence domain. Specifically focusing on current research developments in Europe, a section of the text is devoted to the programming of parallel genetic algorithms.

Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks
  • Author : Dan W. Patterson
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release : 20 April 1996
GET THIS BOOK Artificial Neural Networks

This comprehensive tutorial on artifical neural networks covers all the important neural network architectures as well as the most recent theory--e.g., pattern recognition, statistical theory, and other mathematical prerequisites. A broad range of applications is provided for each of the architectures.

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  • Author : Qun Jie Xu,Yong Guang Li,Xiu Yang
  • Publisher : Trans Tech Publications Ltd
  • Release : 13 December 2013
GET THIS BOOK Energy Development

Collection of selected, peer reviewed papers from the 3rd International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development (EESD 2013), November 12-12, 2013, Shanghai, China. The 596 papers are grouped as follows: Chapter 1: Development and Utilization of Solar Energy; Chapter 2: Development and Utilization of Wind Energy; Chapter 3: Development and Utilization of Biomass Energy; Chapter 4: Energy Storage Technology; Chapter 5: ?nergy ?onsumption and Energy-Saving Technology; Chapter 6: Hydrogen and Fuel Cell; Chapter 7: Energy Materials; Chapter 8: Energy Chemical Engineering; Chapter 9: New Energy Vehicles and Electric Vehicles; Chapter 10: Green